Artificial intelligence could increase aggregate labour productivity by as much as 3.8% over the long term, according to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper that examined patent and employment data across developed economies. The study found that the rapid expansion of AI-related innovation had already produced measurable productivity gains. It estimated that AI patent activity between 2000 and 2017 increased output per worker by between 0.8% and 1.2%.
The findings were published yesterday in an IMF working paper titled “Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Labor Productivity: Evidence from Patent Data.” The researchers examined the aggregate effect of AI technology on labour productivity using patent data from countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The study covered the period between 2000 and 2017.
The findings suggest that AI may generate stronger economic returns when it complements the work performed by skilled employees rather than merely replacing existing tasks.
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