A new study suggests that artificial intelligence has not yet become a game-changer for cybercriminals, despite growing concerns around its misuse.
The research, published on the arXiv preprint server, analysed over 100 million posts from underground cybercrime forums. Experts found that most cybercriminals lack the skills and resources needed to use AI effectively in their operations.
The study examined discussions from the CrimeBB database, using machine learning tools and manual analysis. Researchers focused on conversations starting from November 2022, when ChatGPT was released, to track how cybercriminals were experimenting with AI.
Findings show that AI tools are mainly helping already skilled actors, rather than lowering the barrier to entry for cybercrime. These tools still require strong technical knowledge to deliver results.
Currently, AI is being used most effectively to hide patterns that cybersecurity systems can detect and to run social media bots involved in harassment and fraud. There is also some use in advanced automation, including social engineering and bot farming.
Researchers noted that cybercrime is already highly automated and industrialised, so AI is bringing gradual changes rather than a major shift.
On the positive side, safety guardrails in major chatbots are helping reduce misuse. However, there are concerns that some cybercrime groups are learning to manipulate these systems.
The study also found that many individuals in these communities fear losing their IT jobs due to AI, which could push some towards cybercrime.
Experts warn that the bigger risk lies elsewhere. Poorly secured AI systems, especially agentic AI that can act independently, could expose companies and individuals to serious attacks. There are also concerns around insecure “vibecoded” software created using AI.
The findings will be presented at the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security in Berkeley in June 2026.
Dr. Ben Collier said, “Cybercriminals are experimenting with these tools, but as far as we can tell, they’re not delivering them real benefits in their own work. Our message to industry is: Don’t panic yet. The immediate danger comes from companies and members of the public adopting poorly secured AI systems themselves, opening them up to catastrophic new attacks that can be performed by cybercriminals with little effort or skill.”
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