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NASA satellite launched 14 years ago set to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere

More than a decade after it was launched into orbit, a satellite developed by NASA is now expected to return to Earth. The spacecraft, known as Van Allen Probe A, was sent into space in August 2012 along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, to study the radiation belts surrounding the planet.

According to NASA, the 1,323-pound (600 kg) spacecraft, which was deactivated in 2019, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at approximately 7:45 PM EDT on March 10, with an uncertainty window of +/- 24 hours. The space agency believes most of the satellite will burn up during re-entry. However, the US Space Force has indicated that some parts could survive the descent. Even so, the chances of debris striking a person remain extremely low, estimated at around 1 in 4,200.

The low risk is partly because nearly 70% of Earth’s surface is covered by water. This means any surviving fragments are most likely to fall into the ocean rather than populated areas. The Van Allen Probe A and its twin were initially planned for a 2-year mission. Instead, they continued gathering valuable scientific data for nearly 7 years, studying Earth’s 2 permanent radiation belts before the mission concluded when both spacecraft ran out of fuel and could no longer orient themselves toward the Sun.

Named after scientist James Van Allen, the spacecraft were designed to explore regions of high-energy radiation particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. These doughnut-shaped zones, called the Van Allen belts, help protect the planet from solar storms, cosmic radiation, and streams of charged particles from the Sun known as solar wind. After the mission ended in 2019, NASA initially predicted that the satellite would re-enter Earth around 2034. However, the timeline changed after the current solar cycle intensified. In 2024, when the Sun reached its solar maximum, several space weather events accelerated the spacecraft’s descent, leading to the earlier-than-expected re-entry. Meanwhile, NASA says Van Allen Probe B is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere sometime before 2030.

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