In a development that reflects shifting technology and trade dynamics, Nvidia has secured a license from the United States government to export a limited number of its less-advanced H200 AI chips to China.
The approval allows shipments under strict conditions, including US inspections and a 25% duty. Nvidia confirmed that it has not yet generated any revenue from these exports and remains uncertain whether Chinese authorities will ultimately allow the imports. The company also excluded China data-center revenue from its first-quarter sales forecast.
The license represents an attempt by Nvidia to gradually re-enter the Chinese market after restrictions linked to ongoing US-China tensions limited its access.
Industry observers view the licensing decision as a tactical move rather than a full policy reversal. US officials reportedly reviewed progress in Huawei’s domestically developed AI chips, which are becoming increasingly competitive. The strategy aims to keep Chinese AI development connected to Nvidia’s CUDA software platform, helping preserve the “dominance of the American tech stack”. Allowing exports of an older but powerful chip is also intended to reduce incentives for China to build an independent AI ecosystem incompatible with US technologies.
Beyond Nvidia’s business outlook, the export rules signal wider changes in the global AI landscape. China has responded cautiously, advising its largest technology companies to avoid H200 purchases “unless necessary”.
The situation is accelerating a divide in the industry, with one path centred on Nvidia’s ecosystem and another evolving around Chinese alternatives such as Huawei’s MindSpore AI framework. Analysts warn this momentum could create a “5G-style” decision point for companies and governments, forcing alignment with either US or Chinese technology stacks and potentially causing long-term interoperability challenges.
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