Rising geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf is reshaping global investment strategies, with multinational companies recalibrating expansion plans and redirecting capital toward India’s IT hubs. Many firms operating Global Capability Centres (GCCs) across India and the Middle East are now prioritising stability and risk diversification, positioning India as a key beneficiary of regional disruptions.
India’s GCC market is projected to reach $105–110 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of around 10%. The global GCC services market is expected to more than double to $403 billion by 2032. This shift is strengthening India’s standing as a critical hub for R&D, advanced analytics and product engineering.
India’s GCC ecosystem continues to expand despite global volatility. The country is expected to host over 2,400 GCCs employing 2.8 million professionals by 2030. Growth is driven by cost advantages, a deep talent pool and improving infrastructure. GCCs now account for over 40% of gross office leasing across top Indian cities in 2025.
The sector is moving beyond cost arbitrage toward strategic ownership and AI-led value creation. Industry body NASSCOM projects the Indian IT and GCC workforce to reach 5.95 million in FY26. However, workforce growth remains modest as revenue expansion increasingly decouples from headcount. Supportive government measures, including safe harbour provisions for transfer pricing margins, are further enhancing India’s appeal as a stable investment destination.
Despite the positive momentum, risks remain. A prolonged Middle East conflict affecting oil supply and prices could slow global technology spending and pressure India’s GCC ecosystem. Growth forecasts for FY27 have been revised down to 2–3% from earlier 4–5% due to delayed tech spending and slower decision cycles. Disruptions in maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz may increase freight and insurance costs, compressing margins for Indian exporters. Volatility also poses risks to trade, currency and supply chains. Rapid GCC expansion is intensifying competition for top talent and straining infrastructure in major metro cities. Over 70% of GCCs reportedly lack structured ROI frameworks for AI, limiting effective scaling.
The next 30–60 days are considered critical. If tensions remain contained, India’s GCC sector could emerge stronger as companies reduce exposure to high-risk regions. However, a sustained oil shock or major attacks on Gulf infrastructure could trigger a macro slowdown, challenging India’s $110 billion GCC ambition.
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