Early market estimates suggest a shift in momentum for India’s telecom sector, with subscriber movements expected to favour the top players during the December quarter.
Vodafone Idea (Vi) is projected to report a sharp rise in subscriber losses in the October–December 2025 quarter, breaking a 9-month trend of narrowing declines. According to market trackers, Vi is expected to lose around 3.5 million users in Q3FY26, compared with losses of 1 million in Q2, 0.5 million in Q1, and 2 million in the previous quarter. This comes despite stepped-up investments in its 4G network and the rollout of 5G services.
The anticipated churn is likely to benefit the two largest telecom operators, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Analysts expect Jio to add about 8.4 million subscribers, while Airtel may see net additions of around 3.3 million subscriber, supported by growth in mobile and home broadband services.
Jio’s subscriber base is projected to cross the 500 million mark again, reaching about 515 million by end-December. Airtel’s user base is estimated at 367 million. All 3 telecom operators are expected to post modest growth in average revenue per user (ARPU), ranging from 0.4% to 1.1%. ARPU levels are estimated at ₹259 for Airtel, ₹212.4 for Jio, and ₹169 for Vi.
“For Bharti Airtel, we expect ARPUs to be marginally higher, supported by ongoing 2G-to-4G and prepaid-to-postpaid upgrades, along with improved data monetisation,” brokerage Morgan Stanley said in its quarterly preview note. “For Jio as well, we expect ARPUs to edge up quarter-on-quarter. While tariff hikes are likely in Q1FY27, we believe there remains scope for further ARPU expansion driven by data monetisation and value-added services,” it added.
Jio is expected to lead with sequential revenue growth of 2.1%, ending the quarter with revenues of ₹33,128 crore. Net profit is projected to rise 4.2% to ₹7,264 crore, according to estimates by JM Financial. Airtel’s wireless business is expected to post 1.7% revenue growth to ₹28,599 crore, while overall net profit is projected at ₹6,869 crore.
For Vi, revenues are expected to remain largely flat at ₹11,189 crore, while net loss is projected to widen by 26% to ₹6,987 crore. Nuvama Wealth Management said Vi’s outlook depends on progress in its 5G rollout, fund-raising efforts, and the status of its adjusted gross revenue dues. Recently, the government approved relief by freezing Vi’s AGR payments for 5 years until FY30, according to a news report.
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