India’s telecom sector is expected to see steady growth in Q4FY26, supported by rising ARPU, strong subscriber additions by market leaders, and a favourable pricing environment.
According to a report by Centrum, “rising ARPU to drive performance of Telcos,” with operators likely to record around 1% QoQ increase in ARPU. This growth will be driven by migration from 2G to 4G/5G and an increase in postpaid users.
The report highlights that market dynamics remain in favour of larger players. Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are expected to continue gaining subscriber market share, while Vodafone Idea may see further decline.
Reliance Jio is projected to add around 5 million subscribers sequentially, while Bharti Airtel may add about 6.5 million users. In contrast, Vodafone Idea is expected to lose nearly 1 million customers QoQ.
Data consumption continues to remain strong, driven by deeper penetration of 4G and 5G networks. Both Jio and Airtel have expanded their 5G footprint to cover over 90% of districts, supporting higher data usage per user.
The pricing environment is also improving. The report notes that with only 4 players in the market, conditions are favourable for tariff increases. Another round of hikes is expected, with estimates pointing to a “12-15% tariff hike by July’2026.”
New growth opportunities are emerging across segments such as 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and fixed broadband. Telecom operators are seeing “strong traction in terms of 5G FWA and fixed broadband addition,” supported by low penetration levels.
Among key players, Bharti Airtel is expected to maintain industry-leading ARPU, while Reliance Jio’s growth will be driven by its expanding 5G FWA footprint.
Vodafone Idea’s performance, however, will depend on its ability to raise funds and execute its capital expenditure plans. The report notes that “management commentary on their ongoing capex activity and fund raise program… keenly watched.”
Overall, the sector outlook remains positive, with ARPU growth and improving return ratios expected to drive performance. The report adds, “we maintain status quo on all ratings,” with a preference for Bharti Airtel and Indus Towers among telecom players.
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