Amid shifting global dynamics, remittances to India are projected to reach a record $137-140 billion in FY26 before easing slightly to $135-137 billion in FY27, according to a report by SBI Research.
The estimate follows strong inflows of around $110 billion till December in the current fiscal year, compared to $100 billion during the same period last year. The report links the expected rise to escalating tensions in West Asia, while noting that growth is likely to remain steady rather than sharply increase in the next fiscal year.
This outlook comes after the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a neutral stance, reflecting a cautious approach amid global uncertainty. The report highlights the tone of the RBI Governor’s statement, describing it as the most cautious of his tenure, with repeated references to “uncertainty,” “risk,” “elevated energy prices,” “slowdown,” “shocks” and “disruptions.”
It added, “Energy supply shocks cannot be managed by monetary policy alone. It is prudent for the Reserve Bank to wait and assess how the situation evolves,” pointing to concerns over a potential supply-side crisis.
On economic growth, the RBI has projected real GDP growth at 6.9% for FY27, lower than 7.6% in FY26. Quarterly estimates stand at 6.8% for Q1, 6.7% for Q2, 7.0% for Q3 and 7.2% for Q4, factoring in high energy prices and supply disruptions.
While exports may come under pressure, the services sector is expected to remain strong. Inflation outlook remains uncertain due to volatility in crude oil prices and other commodities, along with possible El Nino conditions. However, a strong rabi crop is likely to support food supply in the near term. The RBI has projected inflation at 4.6% for FY27, with core inflation at 4.4%.
The report also noted that the Governor’s December 2025 statement had a more dovish tone when inflation was lower and geopolitical conditions were stable. In contrast, the latest statement reflects increased caution, though it does not indicate an immediate rate hike. A prolonged pause in policy rates is expected amid the uncertain global environment.
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