A surge in demand for artificial intelligence, defence & robotics technologies is set to lift global copper consumption by nearly 50% over the next decade and a half, according to a new report by S&P Global. That growth, however, could outpace the world’s ability to supply the essential metal, unless mining & recycling efforts scale up dramatically.
Copper plays a quiet but critical role in modern life. Its electrical conductivity makes it indispensable in everything from power grids & EVs to AI data centers. As the world moves toward greater electrification, copper’s importance is only growing.
S&P’s analysis forecasts that annual copper demand will jump from around 28 million metric tons in 2025 to roughly 42 million by 2040, a roughly 50% rise. That spike is attributed to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, including more than 100 new data center projects announced last year with an estimated total value near $61 billion, as well as rising defence & robotics applications.
But while appetite for the metal soars, the supply picture is far less certain. Without new sources of copper, either from fresh mining projects or expanded recycling, the world could face a shortfall of more than 10 million metric tons annually by 2040, meaning nearly a quarter of demand might go unmet. That, S&P warns, could lead to persistent price pressure.
Currently, Chile and Peru dominate copper mining, while China leads in smelting capacity. The United States, meanwhile, imports about half of its copper needs, even as it imposes tariffs on some types of the metal.
After gold and silver’s recent rally, the question now is whether copper could be next. With AI, electrification and defence is driving unprecedented demand, the red metal is moving back into the spotlight.
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