Artificial intelligence has the potential to increase the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040, but without the right policies it could also worsen economic inequality, according to a new report from the World Trade Organization.
The WTO’s annual World Trade Report stated that reduced trade costs and higher productivity could push global trade up by 34 to 37 percent under different scenarios by 2040. Global GDP could also grow by 12 to 13 percent.
“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment,” said Johanna Hill, Deputy Director General of the WTO. She added that despite current challenges in the trading system, AI was reshaping the global economy by lowering costs and driving efficiency.
The report noted that AI could help businesses cut costs in areas such as logistics, regulatory compliance and communication. It highlighted that “AI-driven translation technologies can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly benefiting small producers and retailers by enabling them to expand into global markets.”
It further stated that low-income countries could see export growth rise by as much as 11 percent if they strengthened their digital infrastructure.
However, the WTO warned that without targeted investment and inclusive policies, AI could deepen existing gaps. “The effects of the development and deployment of AI are raising concerns that many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind,” the report said.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the WTO, stressed that governments needed to manage the transition carefully. “AI could upend labour markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others. Managing these shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets,” she said at the launch event in Geneva.
The report also called for stronger trade rules, predictable policies and reduced tariffs on raw materials critical for AI technologies, such as semiconductors, to ensure the benefits of AI are shared globally.
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